Some people insist on making a hybrid car, while others just want to kill it.

Five minutes, 210 kilometers. This is the recharge level of "S4 Super Fast Charge" released by Xpeng Motors on August 15th.

This is good news for Tucki car owners and users who plan to buy Tucki, and it also marks that the electric vehicle industry has taken another step towards eliminating endurance anxiety.

However, it has never been the style of the new forces to talk about things in a straightforward way. Without a few obscene words, it is not enough to attract the attention of the industry, and it is difficult to express their determination to try to subvert the industry without a few flag. Therefore, Tucki gave a "formula" at the press conference: ultra-fast charging+high battery life+self-charging = eliminating hybrid.

Hearing this rhetoric, the scientific and technological circles cheered and the automobile industry frowned.

The former cheered because the "five minutes of charging and two hours of talking" on the mobile phone can finally be arranged on the car, which is known as the industrial pearl, but the technical threshold is just that. The latter frown because they have seen too many words such as "800V high voltage platform", "overcharge" and "x minutes x 100 kilometers". It is reasonable to say that according to the efficiency of "improvement every six months and iteration every year", charging anxiety should have ceased to exist. But the fact is that people’s charging experience has not ushered in a leap.

Charging is difficult and cannot be solved in the short term.

Compared with the perfect situation of "charging for 5 minutes and cruising for 200 kilometers", the current car owners encounter more scenes of "charging for 1 hour and queuing for 4 hours". Although this is an extreme situation during the holidays, isn’t the significance of the existence of the charging network "to raise troops for a thousand days and use them for a while"? If we don’t solve the pain points of these "edge scenes", isn’t it equivalent to the fact that autopilot can’t identify the "ghost probe"? Breaking the chain at a critical moment is the root cause of people’s distrust of a technology.

In fact, the information that the enterprise thinks the user’s car status is different from that before the actual user’s car status, which is also one of the reasons for the poor user experience. According to Tucki, after investigation, they found that the battery life of pure electric vehicles is generally 500 kilometers. Without home charging, pure electric vehicles can commute for more than one week at a time.

However, according to Analysys "Research Report on the Development of Public Charging Service Market for Electric Vehicles in China in 2022", it is pointed out that the construction of public charging infrastructure network in China is structurally insufficient. And the current charging pile users present three characteristics: more than half of users choose public parking lots for charging; The charging time of users is mostly 0.5-1 hour, and the proportion of users who charge once a day is the highest; Problems such as difficulty in finding piles, long queue time and high charging price affect the charging experience of users.

We basically need to charge every day, but there is no fixed parking space to install electric piles at home, so we have to go outside to find public piles, and the experience of finding piles is still not good.

There is obviously a gap between Tucki’s optimistic expectation of pure trams and the actual experience of users of pure electric vehicles.

On the other hand, according to the actual measurement of several new forces’ overcharged piles in car home, it is found that although the power of some charging piles is as high as several hundred kilowatts, the vehicles themselves do not support such high charging power, that is to say, the bottleneck sometimes lies not in the piles, but in the vehicles. He Xiaopeng also pointed out in the press conference that the current G9 in Tucki and the new models after that can support the S3 and S4 levels of fast charging in Tucki, but "at present, it is impossible to upgrade the previous car to ultra-fast charging, mainly due to the battery limitation, but our S4 super-charged pile will be compatible with S2 and S3 models, which actually improves the charging experience of the previous models". That means, the old models can be charged on the S4 charging pile, but only the charging efficiency of S2-anyway, our technology is changing with each passing day, so you should buy early and enjoy early, but don’t complain about the old technology.

Let’s look at another item in Tucki’s formula, self-operated charging pile. At present, 1,000 self-operated charging stations have been built in Tucki. According to the data of charging alliance, it is estimated that there are 4,015 fast-charging piles and 502 AC piles in Tucki. According to the plan, it is expected to reach 3000 seats in 2025. In contrast, Tesla currently has 1,200 super charging stations in China, with 8,700 piles.

But it seems that Tesla has never shouted the slogan of "eliminating mixing".

Pure electricity may be the end, but it should also be based on the present.

Judging from the current human cognition, pure electricity seems to be the ultimate form of automobile energy transformation, but it is not in "years" as the unit, at least in "years" as the unit.

However, in Tucki’s view, at present, pure electric vehicles can commute for more than a week with one charge, while hybrid vehicles need to be recharged with pure electricity for about 2 to 3 times a week. Refueling will bring higher use cost, and the NVH performance and performance under the condition of feeding are poor.

At first glance, it makes sense, but under the fine product, the flexibility of hybrid cars that can be recharged with oil and electricity has become what He Xiaopeng called "need to be recharged more frequently than pure electricity"-can’t it be refueled? The dual power advantage of oil and electricity becomes "weak power in the state of power loss"-then you can’t move without electricity. The combination is to compare the strengths of pure electric vehicles with the weaknesses of hybrid vehicles one by one, showing that the latter is useless, which can be called the Tucki version of "Tian Ji Horse Racing".

As far as the current market is concerned, the more reasonable process is that before the electric replaces the hybrid, the hybrid first replaces the pure fuel vehicle. According to the Technical Roadmap 2.0 of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles of China Automotive Engineering Society, the total proportion of hybrid vehicles (including energy-saving vehicles, PHEV and EREV) in future new energy vehicles will increase from 2.5% in 2020 to 42% in 2025 and reach 52.5% in 2035. Professional organizations have said that in 2035, hybrid vehicles will account for more than half of the total number of new energy vehicles, which is not so easy to eliminate.

TF Securities pointed out in the report "Smart Electric Vehicle Track Depth VI: Hybrid Power Helps the Rise of Independent Brands" that the penetration rate of hybrid vehicles has been greatly improved in 2021. With the launch of a new generation of hybrid products from independent brands, new forces and technology companies, it is expected that the penetration rate of hybrid vehicles will continue to increase rapidly in 2022. According to its calculation, hybrid vehicles may have more than 16 times growth space in 2020-2025.

Different from the traditional European manufacturers adopting P2+48V light mixing and the HEV route adopted by Japanese manufacturers, the domestic independent brands of Great Wall Lemon DHT, BYD DM-i/DM-p, Geely Raytheon and other technologies can almost guarantee the characteristics of strong performance, low fuel consumption and smoothness under any working conditions, which has a solid advantage over overseas technical routes.

However, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation, affirmed Tucki’s point of view. He pointed out that fast charging and long battery life are definitely no problem. Hybrid is actually just a "spare tire". If the fast charging technology is solved, the "spare tire" is not needed. He said that the hybrid system equipment is too complicated and consumes a lot of energy when using electricity, so pure electricity will be the core trend. However, he also believes that "in the short term, we have to look at technological breakthroughs."

Zhang Xiang, Dean of New Energy Automobile Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, gave a similar view. With the decrease of power battery cost and the cancellation of subsidies/green licensing policies for PHEV and HEV in various places (starting from January 1, 2023, Shanghai cancelled the issuance of green licenses for PHEV), such transitional technologies will be gradually eliminated. "At present, hybrid vehicles can replace the cost of some expensive power batteries with mature engine technology, but the battery cost will be lower and lower. And the hybrid car has two systems, which are highly complex and prone to problems. In the future, when the battery cost is lower than the engine, it is the time when hybrid technology is eliminated. However, he also pointed out that mixing is not "killed by Tucki", but a general trend in the industry.

It must be admitted that the battery cost will drop, the charging efficiency will be closer to the refueling speed, and electric vehicles will gradually replace fuel and even hybrid vehicles. But no one knows who is still alive and who has been eliminated when this day comes.