A few days ago, the high-level meeting specially studied the issue of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, emphasizing that accelerating product renewal is an important measure to promote high-quality development, and it is necessary to encourage and guide a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods.
In the past, we had three large-scale equipment updates. The first time was the large-scale introduction of western equipment in the early days of reform and opening up, and the industrial level advanced by leaps and bounds; The second time, after China joined the World Trade Organization, China’s light and heavy industrial equipment was upgraded and replaced. The third time is intensive and efficient development since 2016, and the equipment update of domestic enterprises has gradually turned to domestic high-tech equipment.
The three equipment updates have greatly improved the domestic industrial production technology level and production efficiency, and the latest equipment update will make the domestic industrial technology level reach a new level and be invincible in the future global economic competition.
Some analysts pointed out that the trade-in market has great potential, especially equipment renewal is one of the few key links mentioned in the last decade. Because equipment purchase is an important part of investment in fixed assets of industrial production, it accounts for about 18% of the total investment.
Experts estimate that the superposition of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods may increase the growth rate of the national economy by 0.3%-0.5%, which translates into an increase in GDP of nearly 400 billion yuan to more than 600 billion yuan. Moreover, through equipment renovation, it is not only conducive to expanding investment in fixed assets, but also to promoting economic upgrading and upgrading, and promoting the high-quality development of industrial economy. With the implementation of specific favorable policies, we can further incite the incremental and stock markets and promote consumption growth. In addition, some industries that benefit from the improvement of localization rate are also expected to usher in growth under the boost of the old-for-new policy.
Specifically, investors can choose to fund sub-sectors such as household appliances, automobiles, new energy power generation (green electricity), semiconductor equipment, industrial mother machines, and telecommunications equipment.
Tu zhi Jin Bao AI studio
household appliances
Trade-in the old and expand the consumption vanguard
Standing at the time when the increment and stock of domestic home appliance industry coexist, with the implementation of this round of home appliance trade-in policy, it is expected to bring greater demand and potential for upgrading. Sun Qian, an analyst, pointed out that the Central Financial and Economic Committee emphasized the trade-in of traditional consumer goods such as household appliances, highlighting the importance attached to promoting domestic demand and optimizing the consumption environment throughout the year. Compared with the previous round of trade-in policy, the current domestic household appliance market has a larger stock scale, and there is room for the release of renewal demand. With the subsequent investment of national and local funds, the demand for upgrading of the industry is expected to be better released. At the same time, the increase in the concentration of the domestic household appliance industry is expected to make the head enterprises fully benefit from the favorable policies and seize greater increments.
() Chen Meng, an analyst, pointed out that the product replacement cycle of the last round of "home appliances going to the countryside" has arrived, and there is a large market space for "trade-in". The last round of "home appliances to the countryside" policy has promoted the number of household appliances such as color TV, refrigerator and washing machine in China, especially in rural areas. According to the group standard "Safe Service Life of Household Appliances", the average service life of household appliances is 8-10 years. Therefore, the household appliances sold under the guidance of the first round of home appliances going to the countryside policy are in the replacement period, and it is expected that the new round of national household appliances "trade-in" activities will accelerate the release of household appliances update demand.
In the future, the effective implementation of the household appliance consumption policy will effectively stimulate the subsequent household appliance market to pick up, and the leading household appliance enterprises with strong brands, strong early channel sinking and multi-category layout are expected to benefit first. Chen Meng suggested that investors should focus on (), (), () and () and the high-quality standard of home appliance parts, and actively pay attention to (), () and ().
Haier Zhijia ranked first in ice washing, with high-end products constantly.
Midea Group’s white electricity leader, continuous global layout.
Boss electric appliances kitchen appliances have a stable leading position and diversified and practical progress.
Changhong Meiling’s home appliances are the main force in the countryside, and its performance growth exceeds expectations.
automobile making
Demand release, rapid improvement in sales volume
As an important part of consumer goods, automobiles are in an important position in previous trade-in policies. Yang Weixiao, an analyst at Guoyuan Securities, pointed out that the next few years will usher in the climax of scrapping and replacing 10 million and 20 million peak vehicles in China in 2009 and 2013. Combined with the historical policy effect, the consumer price elasticity of passenger cars is high. In the critical period of redemption and scrapping, the trade-in policy is expected to drive consumers to change cars during the window period, and the policy effect is obvious.
Car sales were under pressure years ago, and it is expected to improve rapidly after 2024. Yue Qinghui, an analyst at Capital Securities, pointed out that the high-level meeting emphasized the need to promote the upgrading and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment, encourage the trade-in of traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and household appliances, and adhere to the linkage between the central government and local governments in trade-in of consumer goods, and make overall plans to support all links in the whole chain, so as to benefit consumers more. It is expected that with the joint support of the central and local governments, the trade-in of automobiles is expected to become a powerful driving force for the increase of automobile replacement rate and the recovery of the automobile market.
According to the latest data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in January were 787,000 and 729,000 respectively, up by 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year. The penetration rate is 29.89%, up 5.15% year-on-year. It is estimated that the sales volume of electric vehicles will exceed 11 million in 2024.
It is suggested to pay attention to the three main lines of "high-prosperity new energy, intelligence and independent vehicle". Wu Xiaofei, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, said that it is recommended to pay attention to the targets (), (), (), (), (), (), (), () and so on. Intelligent main line, it is recommended to pay attention to targets (), (), (), (), (), etc. It is recommended to pay attention to the target (), Changan Automobile, () and () for the whole passenger car.
BYD electric vehicle leader, making efforts in the high-end market.
Changan Automobile (000625) joined hands with Huawei for great development and ushered in an upward breakthrough cycle.
Double-ring transmission component leader, overseas base becomes new growth pole.
Bethel’s leading brake parts, continuous global layout.
New energy power generation
"Double Carbon" accelerates the installation speed.
In the medium and long term, the goal of "double carbon" in China will not change, and it is imperative to establish a new power system path with new energy as the main body. In the second half of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the growth of green electricity installed capacity is expected to accelerate, and photovoltaic, wind power and other sub-sectors will benefit from it.
Wang Weijia, an analyst at Huatai Securities, predicts that the average annual installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic will rise to 71GW and 183GW from 2023 to 2025. Wind power benefits from the sharp price cuts in the upstream, the expected new installed capacity is relatively stable, and the leading edge of central enterprises is obvious; The cost of photovoltaics is going down, and the newly installed capacity in 2023 is expected to exceed expectations, and the share of central enterprises has increased significantly.
Under the fierce competition, it is expected that photovoltaic companies with abundant funds, leading technology and standardized management will cross the cycle. On the other hand, the industry is in the window of technology iteration, which will also give birth to new opportunities. Sheng Wei, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, suggested that investors should pay attention to Artes, Jingke Energy, Trina Solar, (), (), (), () and so on.
In terms of wind power, with the acceleration of offshore wind power in China, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other sea breeze provinces have planned and approved the construction of projects, and the tower pipe pile link is expected to benefit directly, followed by the submarine cable link. Industrial chain parts enterprises will also benefit from the acceleration of offshore construction and the boost of overseas market expansion. The trend of large-scale and the application of new technologies will open up the development space of whole machine and parts enterprises. () Analyst Yu Ximeng pointed out that with the improvement of demand, the capacity utilization rate of tower tubular piles and the profit per ton have increased simultaneously, and it is suggested to pay attention to (), (), (), () and () with smooth overseas market development and strong order acquisition ability; The March of wind power into the deep sea will significantly increase the demand for high-voltage products of leading submarine cable enterprises in the industry, and mainly recommend enterprises with obvious location advantages and promising further breakthroughs, such as () and ().
Taisheng wind energy deep sea wind power has great potential and sufficient orders are in hand.
Artes (688472) accelerated the construction of integrated production capacity, with high overseas shipments.
Jingke Energy (688223) is the leader of photovoltaic modules, and its leading position is further consolidated.
Daikin Heavy Industry is the leader of wind power and offshore engineering, with strong performance growth.
semiconductor device
Increasing localization rate and creating new value
Semiconductor equipment is the most direct advance of a country’s scientific and technological level, and it is the core tool for manufacturing semiconductor chips, which directly determines the production efficiency, cost and quality of chips. The technological progress of semiconductor equipment directly promotes the improvement of chip integration, thus promoting the performance of electronic products. In recent years, in the increasingly complex external environment, semiconductor equipment, as a key technical link of "sticking the neck", has been increasingly important.
Liu Menglin, an analyst at Dongguan Securities, pointed out that due to the improvement of localization rate, the performance of domestic semiconductor equipment is relatively bright, and leading companies generally expect the annual operating income to achieve high-speed growth in 2023. Under the situation that overseas procurement of imported semiconductor equipment is tightening, domestic head semiconductor equipment enterprises are in a high-speed development stage. Looking forward to 2024, with the continuous expansion of domestic fabs’ production capacity and the continuous recovery of superimposed downstream demand, domestic semiconductor equipment enterprises are expected to further deepen the localization rate, accelerate the penetration of market share, and bring significant order increment.
Chinese mainland is one of the major semiconductor equipment markets in the world. In the future, with the continuous expansion of domestic wafer production capacity, the market scale of domestic semiconductor equipment industry is expected to continue to grow. Some people in the industry pointed out that for domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, the driving force is not only the natural expansion of industry scale, but also the improvement of localization rate in the domestic market. At present, the localization rate of semiconductor equipment continues to increase, and the share of domestic products will increase, which will contribute considerable growth speed and space for the industry.
Relying on the continuous expansion of local wafer production capacity, as well as the company’s own product competitiveness, broad share growth space and category expansion ability, domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are expected to accelerate the localization rate of semiconductor equipment, with remarkable growth speed and space. Wang Liang, an analyst at GF Securities, suggested that investors pay attention to the strong card position in the core process of semiconductors and the targets such as (), Zhongwei Company, Huahai Zero2IPO, Tuojing Technology, Zhongke Feice, Shengmei Shanghai, Xinyuan Micro, Micro-conductive Nano, (), (), Huafeng Measurement and Control, and () which have new categories to expand this year.
North Huachuang etching equipment leader, profitability continues to improve.
The market share of Zhongwei Company (688012) is expected to increase.
Huahai Qingke (688120) cleaning machine faucet, the platform layout continues to improve.
Tuojing Technology (688072) is the leader of thin film deposition equipment, which has obvious advantages in blocking position.
Industrial mother machine
Break the "stuck neck" and the industry welcomes development opportunities.
In recent years, the external competition has become more and more fierce, and it is important to improve the resilience and safety level of the supply chain of the industrial chain. China has listed the development of large-scale, precision and high-speed CNC machine tools and functional components as one of the important national revitalization goals. In the critical period of China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading, the industrial machine tool industry is facing better development opportunities. Some analysts pointed out that the industrial machine tool is an important link in China’s national chain. In recent years, China has successively issued a series of policies to support and standardize the development of the CNC machine tool industry, aiming at promoting the overall market competitiveness of China’s middle and high-end CNC machine tool manufacturers.
The problem of "sticking neck" in the field of high-end CNC machine tools in China is outstanding. Under the background of strong national support, the localization of industrial mother machines is expected to accelerate. Cui Guotao, an analyst at CDB Securities, pointed out that at the previous Central Economic Work Conference, the promotion of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance was once again emphasized, and it was proposed that the structural tax reduction and fee reduction policy should be implemented in 2024, with emphasis on supporting scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing development, which restricted the development of China’s industrial machinery industry. The core pain point is expected to ease. The improvement of the autonomy rate and reliability of core functional components is conducive to accelerating the upgrading of industrial mother machine product structure; On the one hand, the continuous optimization of a number of preferential tax policies is conducive to improving the overall profitability of the industry, on the other hand, it is conducive to alleviating the financial pressure caused by technological innovation of enterprises, further enhancing the endogenous motivation of independent research and development, and thus accelerating the process of independent control of industrial machinery in China.
Meng Pengfei, an analyst of open source securities, pointed out that China’s machine tool output value ranks first in the world, but the high-end localization rate is less than 10%, which is large but not strong. In recent years, driven by manufacturing upgrading, independent control and policy design, the industry has ushered in high-end breakthrough opportunities; The key lies in the supporting links of industrial chain represented by core components and high-end products represented by five-axis linkage machine tools and precision grinders. In addition, the downstream prosperity of China’s machine tools oscillates and grinds to the bottom, and the toughness of leading enterprises is highlighted, and the strong are strong. After the pro-cyclical recovery in the future, machine tool equipment, as the basis of production line, is expected to meet the rebound first. Investors are advised to pay attention to (), (), (), (), (), (), Cod CNC, (), (); Pro-cyclical mainline (), Newway CNC, etc.
Huazhong CNC five-axis machine tool leader continues to lead the high-end field.
Niri Seiki CNC thread grinder faucet, new field opens up new space.
Haitian precision gantry machine tool leader, speed up the global market layout
Newway CNC (688697) has a stable new order and its performance is better than the industry level.
telecommunication facilities
The rapid development of 5.5G industrial chain is expected.
In the future, 5G upgrades will accelerate new services such as car networking, and the trend of intelligent transportation market networking+intelligence is clear, with strong long-term growth. From the perspective of industrial chain integration, 5.5G technology is expected to significantly improve the efficiency, operating costs and safety of multiple vertical industries. 5.5G, or 5G-Advanced, is a communication technology planned from 2025 to 2030 under the trend of expanding the scale of 5G services and increasing the speed of digitalization and intelligence. It is an enhancement and expansion of 5G application scenarios. Compared with 5G, 5.5G is expected to increase the downlink and uplink transmission rates by 10 times, while ensuring millisecond delay, which can explore the latest direction for the future development of 6G according to the development and changes of the industry.
() Zhao Liangbi, a securities analyst, pointed out that the development of 5.5G has now entered an active stage, with the active participation of equipment suppliers and domestic and foreign operators. Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson, Nokia and other equipment suppliers are developing and manufacturing 5.5G equipment, and plan to launch commercial equipment in 2024. Domestic operators have started 5.5G trials and deployments. Foreign operators also actively participate in the trial and deployment of 5.5G Generally speaking, China is in a relatively leading position with the advantages of 5G coverage and patents, and global competition is expected to accelerate the rapid development of the industrial chain.
If there is a real need to realize new network experience scenarios such as 5.5G "10Gigabit downlink and Gigabit uplink", it is expected to add frequency bands and drive the consumption and value of base stations/terminal equipment and upstream chips, antennas, filters, PA, PCB and optical modules. If large-scale construction, the above-mentioned related industries are expected to benefit better. Wang Xing, an analyst at Huatai Securities, suggested that we should pay attention to many sub-sectors in the industrial chain, including (), () of telecom operators and China Unicom; ZTE and Xinke Mobile of ICT equipment vendors; (), (), (), (), (), etc. in the field of antenna; Canqin Technology, Guobo Electronics, () and () in the field of RF devices; (), (), (), () and () in the field of PCB; (), (), (), (), (), (), Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photonics, etc. in the field of optical modules; (), (), () and so on in the field of Internet of Things modules.