Six major consumption trends of the new middle class in 2023： the end point of consumption is ＂sense of relaxation＂
"In 2023, most new middle-class people were cautious about consumption. 47.5% of new middle-class families expect their consumption expenditure to remain unchanged, and 44.5% will fluctuate slightly. Among them, the proportion of people who choose to increase slightly is slightly higher than that of people who shrink slightly. "
Text/dawn report
The White Paper on the New Middle Class in 2023 will be released soon, and the time is set in mid-January 2024.
Compared with usual, we delayed the release of this report and put it at the beginning of the new year.
Retreat, standing in 2024 and looking back at 2023, the perspective is higher and more comprehensive; Practically speaking, this gives us more time to use more accurate annual data, not only to see it all, but also to see it carefully.
In addition to the release time, the content of the New Middle-class White Paper in 2023 has also changed a lot. In the past, we may have observed the changes of the new middle class life from a similar angle more mechanically, with the intention of catching a glimpse of the leopard from the small life links. The problem with this is that the observation may be accurate, but there is no practical reference for future speculation.
If you still don’t know what the new middle class is, here is a long picture for your reference, which records the starting point and mental journey of our observation of the new middle class.
The theme of the White Paper on the New Middle Class in 2023 is "Globalization". We refer to the development experience of the new middle class in other countries and combine the current situation faced by the new middle class in China to find a reference value for consumption and life. On a similar path, see where you have gone, and then step on others’ footprints to decide your next step, so as to reduce the opportunity cost brought by the choice as much as possible.
So where did the new middle class go in 2023? From this new report, which is about to be completed, we have drawn six groups of intuitive conclusions and made a simple summary of the new middle class year with data.
In 2022, we defined the new middle class as people who have certain wealth and are in the period of rising career. They are an important force to promote the social development of China through many dimensions such as occupation and consumption, and they are also a group of people who are greatly influenced by the overall development level of society.
The data tells us that the wealth growth of the new middle class has also encountered certain bottlenecks. Only 17.5% of the respondents said that 2023 was a year of asset expansion, which directly mapped to every consumption of the new middle class.
Mark Twain said: "History does not simply repeat itself, but it always moves forward with the same rhyme."
Looking back at the development of China’s consumption era, it has gone through four stages since the 1990s:Food and clothing consumption → diversified brand consumption → personalized consumption → rational consumption.
In 1980s and 1990s, China residents concentrated on food and clothing and large household durable consumer goods, such as color TV sets, washing machines and refrigerators, and paid attention to the price. In the new century of 2000, consumers have initially formed brand awareness, which requires not only the basic functions of products, but also additional functions. From 2010 to 2017, personalized consumption rose, social media such as WeChat and Weibo became the main channels to influence consumers, and the focus of consumption also shifted from commodity to service consumption.
Since 2018, new domestic products have risen, consumption has been further upgraded, the new middle class has been expanding, and consumption has gradually returned to pragmatism and rationality, from brand consumption to quality consumption.
Based on the data dimensions of macroeconomic level, per capita disposable income and per capita GDP, there are many similarities between China and the United States and Japan in the past.
Generally speaking, the changes of consumption times in China, the United States and Japan will basically go through three stages.
At the beginning, the economy developed at a high speed, urbanization advanced, and mass consumer goods prevailed. Later, after the economy developed to a certain stage, consumers’ cognition improved, and faced with consumption upgrading, consumption began to enter the stage of high-end, brand and quality. Finally, when the economic growth slows down or even stagnates, residents’ consumption behavior will tend to return to rationality, instead of blindly pursuing brands, they will pay the bill on demand.
As shown in the figure, China is currently in the transition stage from the second consumer society to the third consumer society, but it has emerged the characteristics of the fourth consumer society, and the overall level is closer to the Japanese level in the 1970s-1990s. In combination, it is more like being in the middle of the "3 consumption era".
The most typical data feature in the consumption era is the change of consumption expenditure of new middle-class families.
Judging from the specific expenditure figures, in 2023, the daily expenditure of the new middle class appeared the phenomenon of "tight monetary policy". In 2023, the proportion of the new middle class whose monthly household expenditure is less than 10,000 yuan is 12.9 percentage points higher than that in 2022.
Affected by the objective environment, the uncertainty of one’s own work and investment and other factors,In 2023, most of the new middle class were cautious about consumption. 47.5% of new middle-class families expect their consumption expenditure to remain unchanged, and 44.5% will fluctuate slightly. Among them, the proportion of people who choose to increase slightly is slightly higher than that of people who shrink slightly.
Positive, but positive is relatively limited. At present, the attitude of the new middle class towards household consumption expenditure is generally conservative.
The daily consumption of the new middle class is diligent and frugal, and it is also comfortable to streamline consumption. In the investigation in 2023, we found that when a commodity is related to keywords such as "cost performance", "basic/practical", "living artifact" and "tens of billions of subsidies", it is easier to attract the attention of the new middle class.
Referring to the United States in the 1990s, price comparison is one of the most common operations after returning to rational consumption. When millennials become the main force in the American consumer market, they attach great importance to the cost performance of goods. According to the survey of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 71% of people will compare prices online before buying, and 50% will compare prices between stores.
Although there are signs of spending cuts, the new middle class has not completely given up the happiness brought by consumption. According to the survey data, the new middle class is willing to spend money on their hobbies, and it is also affordable to splurge occasionally for "experience upgrade", "high-end/quality", "delicious" and "fun".
"overall frugality, local arbitrariness",It is the consumption attitude of the current new middle class. But how to find a balance between these two almost completely different attitudes has become our next dismantling object.
Basic consumption is the main position for the new middle class to save money.
German sociologist Haltmut Rosa believes that the essence of modernity is social acceleration, which can be divided into scientific and technological acceleration, social change acceleration and life rhythm acceleration.
With the rapid development of the Internet, the new middle class is inevitably caught in the accelerated time. As a result, the demand of some new middle-class people for instant and entertainment has increased rapidly, and prefabricated dishes and mobile entertainment have naturally become the just-needed consumption of families living alone or having children late.
In 2023, the prefabricated vegetable market rose. From January to September, 2023, the sales volume of prepared dishes below 50 yuan was the highest in Tik Tok. 200 yuan’s sales at the price of 100-100 increased the fastest year-on-year, reaching 99%, including some complicated dishes, party packages, New Year’s Eve packages and so on.
Behind the rise of prefabricated dishes, it shows that the new middle class pursues frugality and quick satisfaction in food consumption, the consumption cost and time costs are reduced at the same time, and the living density is accelerated.
Prefabricated dishes greatly reduce the difficulty and threshold of home cooking and provide a kind of "quick fireworks". According to the report of iResearch, nearly 70% of consumers buy pre-cooked dishes because of "saving time", nearly 30% because they don’t like cooking, and nearly 20% because they can’t cook.
The macro reason behind this is inseparable from the changes in the country’s demographic structure. Singletonization, family miniaturization and increasing female employment rate in the 1990s made Japanese small-sized families more inclined to cook prepared dishes or eat out. After Japan’s household expenditure peaked in 1992, the per capita consumption of food sub-categories was generally still on the rise, including beverages, dairy products, condiments and prepared vegetables.
Where did the money saved by the new middle class by squeezing basic consumption go? It is likely to be used to enhance sensory stimulation.
In 2023, a short drama with an episode of 3-5 minutes but an unambiguous plot became one of the electronic mustard tuber that brought sensory stimulation. As long as the microwave oven heats a pre-cooked dish, it can meet the entertainment needs of the new middle class for simplicity, relaxation and direct delivery.
In 2023, the market size of micro-short plays in China reached 37.39 billion yuan, and in the third quarter, the circulation of online micro-short plays in China reached 150, nearly twice the total in 2022. On Aauto Quicker APP, nearly 200 million users watch short plays every week.
This year is also a year of performance economy. According to the data of China Performance Industry Association, the number of performances and box office receipts in the first three quarters of 2023 have exceeded the level of the whole year of 2019. Jumping and jumping in concerts and music festivals, as supporting guests and Wu Bai singing to the top of their lungs, is one of the ways for the new middle class to vent.
2023 is also a year of theme parks. According to the financial report of Disneyland, even though the ticket prices of Shanghai Disneyland and Hongkong Disneyland have been rising one after another, the number of tourists and spending in the park have increased. Disney has also become a new middle-class weekend resort. Among the preferences of theme parks of netizens in China in 2023, 43.6% of consumers like Disney best.
Before that, the new middle class rewarded themselves with a feast at the weekend, but now the saved meals are marked as light sticks at concerts and Lena Belle dolls in Disney Park.The sensory stimulation pursued by the new middle class has never disappeared, but the stimulation of taste has turned into more intense enjoyment in vision and hearing.
In 2023, the new middle class is not only used to "deslagging" consumption like chewing sugar cane, but also expects consumption to bring longer-term additional significance.
Compared with the survey data in 2022, we have the following three findings.
First of all, "children’s education" has been the champion of the main expenditure items of new middle-class families for two consecutive years. Specifically, the monthly child-rearing expenditure of the new middle class is highly concentrated in three places, namely education and study (73.4%), daily diet (46.3%) and interest cultivation (45.3%).
Although the travel consumption has risen rapidly, it has only returned to the normal level. However, the proportion of children’s education and learning improvement has increased significantly, which shows the long-term change of the consumption attitude of the new middle class. Investing in the growth and health of the next generation is still the most certain expenditure and the most worthy of persisting in "long-term doctrine".
In addition to basic and enjoyable consumption, in 2023, there will be two important words in the consumption of the new middle class-"indoor" and "outdoor".
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2023, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents ranked second, second only to basic consumption (food, tobacco and alcohol).
Suning.cn’s "double 11 Electrical Appliances Consumption Watch" shows that the new trend of household appliances is intensive, and the sales of household appliances represented by washing and drying suits, dishwashers and sweeping robots have increased by 117%, 125% and 132% respectively.
The reason is that the long-term experience of staying at home makes the relationship between the new middle class and the space of "home" more and more intimate. With the recovery of consumption, the new middle class has continued and even upgraded the personalized demand for living space.
In terms of outdoor economy, China’s new middle class is now keen on suburban exploration and short trips.
In 2023, the outdoor travel frequency of the new middle class is higher than that of 2022, and nearly 40% of the new middle class will go outdoors every month. More than 40% of the new middle class said that they would try new products related to travel on a regular basis.
This is similar to Japan’s travel trend from 1984 to 2019. At that time, in Japan, short-distance tours with short distance, short time and low price constantly replaced European and American tours, and showed the characteristics of family and miniaturization. From 1992 to 2022, Japan’s sports-related consumption has also been rising, such as mountaineering, camping, cycling and gymnasiums.
According to the massive engine "2023 Tik Tok Tourism Content Experience Survey", in terms of travel days, the number of people who choose to travel for 1-3 days is the highest, reaching 44.2%. Even if they don’t take a three-day holiday, many new middle-class people have to "sleep somewhere else" for the weekend-or simply find a hotel in the city where they live.
The above are eight important figures that we extracted from the White Paper on New Middle Class: Consumption in 2023. In addition to consumption-related data, we also explored more data with the brand of the times from the perspectives of wealth, occupation and social relations of the new middle class. Teacher Wu will also use these findings in the "Foreseeing the 2024 Wu Xiaobo Factory Year-end Show" on December 30th.Welcome to make an appointment for live broadcast.
Author | Awan | responsibilityEdit | Tao Xu
Editor | He mengfei | Source | VCG
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